Developing and improving lung cancer risk models

Eoin Gray is a second year PhD student in Medical Statistics at the School of Health and Related Research. Before moving to Sheffield in 2013, Eoin graduated with a Masters in Mathematics from the University of Leicester.

The title of Eoin's research project is: Developing and improving lung cancer risk models.

Summary: There has been an increase in different models that aim to predict one’s risk of obtaining lung cancer over a specified time frame. These models can be open to the public for individual health consultation and used in a medical environment to request additional tests and courses of actions. The existing lung cancer models have all been devised and tested against large populations and have found reasonable success. When a model has struggled in validation study, new models are devised based on new information or extending original models. This has lead to a range of prediction models that consider varying variables from smoking history, previous lung diseases, exposure to harmful toxins, and family history. This research aims to utilise the  existing models based on distinct but similar individual level patient data to combine their knowledge to create an aggregated model with a stronger performance in predicting individual lung cancer risk. This will be achieved using a large patient level dataset to externally validate existing models before using available techniques to aggregate models and assess their ability.

Click this link to view a poster about Eoin's research to date: Developing and improving lung cancer risk models